Threat modeling describes a process of scouting for loopholes in your system that can serve as an advantage for a possible attack like data leaks or hackers. 

This approach is one that is structured, and works through the use of theoretical scenarios, system diagrams and testing, in a bid to identify weaknesses as well as come up with defense systems and rectification strategies to prevent system compromise. 

Threat modeling also gives you a foresight to potential threats and system vulnerabilities; a valuable advantage over the recent sophistication of cyber threats.

Global Market Insights gives a report of the threat modeling tools market, which was valued at 878.8 million US dollars in 2022 and is set to have an 11% increase between 2023 and 2032. This growth is facilitated by the need for effective security control against potential vulnerabilities, which threat modeling can provide.

Why Threat Modeling?

Below are the reasons why threat modeling is crucial for your business:

• Secure development: You become abreast with the vulnerabilities facing the components of your system and can actively inculcate mitigation steps in the development or design stage, further safeguarding your business from potential risks in the long run.
• Rational decisions: Security decisions can be made rationally through a threat model and there are concise and specific actions to take when threats are narrowed down in the analysis. 
• Assurance: Threat modeling invokes a certainty concerning security doubts and enables a sturdy confidence towards risk management.

Differences in Threat Modeling Methodologies

Threat modeling can highlight threats either through the perspective of the potential attacks, an analysis of the software and system assets.

Below are the major threat modeling methodologies:

1. STRIDE

• Spoofing: Attacker impersonates a legitimate user.
• Tampering: Unauthorized modification of data.
• Repudiation: Users deny actions without accountability.
• Information Disclosure: Unauthorized information access.
• Denial of Service: Disruption of service availability.
• Elevation of Privilege: Unauthorized actions by gaining higher access.

2. PASTA (Process for Attack Simulation and Threat Analysis)

• Seven-step risk-centric methodology.
• Focuses on the attacker's perspective and business impact.
• Steps include defining objectives, threat identification, vulnerability analysis, and risk analysis.
• Prioritizes mitigation efforts based on business impact.

3. VAST (Visual, Agile, and Simple Threat)

• Designed for Agile environments.
• Scales threat modeling across large organizations.
• Focuses on automation and integrating with DevOps.
• Two approaches: application threat modeling and operational threat modeling.

4. TRIKE

• Risk-based security auditing methodology.
• Creates a threat model that includes actors, assets, and system components.
• Focuses on assigning risk levels to identified threats and ensuring risk mitigation.
• Prioritizes risk management and compliance.

These methodologies provide frameworks for identifying and addressing security risks in different contexts, from agile development to risk-focused auditing.

How Does Threat Modeling Work?

Threat modeling works, not just by identifying risks and threats theoretically, but by standing in the place of cyber criminals and from their viewpoints, determining their point of attack.

In threat modeling, a systematic analysis of the software or system make-up or application is performed by the organization, allowing for a more thorough comprehension and the finding of significant system components.

Threat modeling can be done during the development or application stage of a software, although when it is part of the development process, the system is built with loose ends tightened up and there is a prevention of vulnerabilities like unencrypted data and weak authentication.

Threat Modeling: Understanding the Security Threats Facing Your Business

In this section, we outline a step by step process of threat modeling, as a means to pinpoint and understand the security threats facing your business:

• Decide on an Asset: Make a decision with your IT team concerning what system would be the object of the threat model and create a hypothetical structure of it. 
• Make use of a Data Flow Diagram (DFD):  This system should be transcribed into a diagram that illustrates the flow of the system in proper functioning with possible origins or assumptions of an attack, taken note of.
• Analyze possible threats: Identify which part of the system model is a common target and search out where a threat is positioned. This involves pointing out vulnerabilities in your system that is a go-to target for cyber attacks or a loose end for the smooth running of the software, using an attack tree or any of the threat model methodologies like STRIDE, PASTA, etc.
• Weigh threats: Placing each threat side by side, measure the risk level that lie in the potential of each threat by comparing the damage one could make to the susceptibility of the risk.
• Take counteractive measures: Now that the risks are known, the next thing to input is a process of mitigation against the threats, in order to reduce the effect of, or avoid the risk completely.
• Implementation: You want to document and monitor the end result of the process to study its efficiency as well as keep an eye out for changes to the software, so that the threat model is not outdated.

Threat modeling can be an efficient method by which your business comes to know the likely security risks that it stands to face, while giving you practical actions to enhance your cyber security practices. For more materials on threats and effective cyber security measures, please subscribe to the Cyberkach blog.